A Spatial-Simulation-MCDM Framework for Prioritizing Vaccine Cold-Chain Resilience Strategies in Libya

Ibrahim Badi; Osama Serrar

doi:10.31181/smeor41202760

Authors

Ibrahim Badi Department of Mechanical Engineering, Libyan Academy-Misrata, Libya Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1193-1578
Osama Serrar Faculty of Pharmacy, Misurata University, Libya Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2526-7820

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31181/smeor41202760

Keywords:

Vaccine Cold Chain, Spatial Accessibility, Monte Carlo Simulation, BWM, TOPSIS, Resilience, Health Logistics

Abstract

Vaccine cold chains preserve vaccine potency across storage, transport, and service-delivery points. In geographically dispersed health systems, cold-chain planning requires spatial, operational, and strategic evidence because storage failure, transport delay, and demand pressure can affect service continuity. This study proposes a decision-support framework for prioritizing vaccine cold-chain resilience strategies in Libya. The framework integrates city-level spatial screening of twenty principal urban centers, Monte Carlo disruption simulation, and a BWM-TOPSIS model informed by a four-expert assessment. The analysis separates calculated spatial indicators, structured screening scores, and expert elicitation inputs, and reports the simulation parameters, BWM comparison vectors, TOPSIS scoring procedure, consistency results, comparative ranking checks, and rank-reversal tests. Results place southern and southeastern cities at the upper end of the cold-chain vulnerability ranking and identify preventive maintenance and spare parts, digital temperature monitoring, and route planning with emergency redistribution protocols as the leading resilience package. The framework offers a transparent and updateable basis for cold-chain planning in Libya and comparable settings.

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